Proposed supplies and sanctions
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed a plan for Russian diesel to return to global markets. The proposed volumes are 300,000 tonnes in October, 500,000 tonnes in November and one million tonnes in December. Trump said the arrangement would bring prices down. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said exports could potentially reach 3.5 million tonnes per month by year’s end.
Those figures describe a proposal and Russian claims, not guaranteed deliveries. Energy analyst Kostis Stambolis estimated that Russia produces about 5.8 million tonnes of diesel monthly, with roughly two million tonnes potentially available for export.
The arrangement would temporarily ease sanctions on Russian oil products until April 2027. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticised the move, arguing that sanctions relief could weaken Ukraine’s strategy of striking Russian refineries and reduce pressure on Moscow.
A widening political rift
European leaders have responded by putting continued support for Ukraine at the centre of discussions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said funding for Kyiv would be a priority at the European Council summit. Finland’s foreign minister also urged European countries to stop issuing tourist visas to Russian citizens.
The disagreement comes as Ukraine says its attacks have damaged a significant share of Russia’s refining capacity. Trump has urged Kyiv to avoid strikes on Russian energy facilities, while Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have continued. Trump has also called for Ukraine to elect a new president, adding to tensions with European governments that back Kyiv.
Uncertain market impact
The effect of the diesel plan on prices remains uncertain. Analysts have questioned whether it would significantly lower fuel costs in the United States. One energy expert argued that the G7’s October 2 announcement to release 100 million barrels from strategic reserves could have a greater effect on oil prices.
