Strengthening El Niño Could Rank Among the Largest on Record
The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says El Niño has strengthened over the past month and is expected to become one of the strongest events recorded since 1950.
Forecasters estimate an 81% chance that El Niño will reach a very strong level between October and December 2026 and a 97% chance that it will continue into early spring 2027.
El Niño warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, disrupting global weather patterns and contributing to higher global temperatures. It often brings drought to Australia, wetter conditions in East Africa and the southern United States, and can influence weather in many other regions.
Climate scientists say global warming may be increasing the intensity of both El Niño and La Niña events, raising the likelihood of more extreme weather. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are already well above average, indicating the climate system is continuing to strengthen. The previous El Niño contributed to record global temperatures in 2024 following the second-hottest year on record in 2023.
