Hormuz disruption drives the downgrade

The revised outlook links weaker performance to prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and the wider conflict involving Iran. The waterway is a major route for energy shipments. Interrupted exports, damaged infrastructure, higher transport costs and weaker business confidence can affect producers as well as economies connected to regional trade.

The forecast covers a broad group of economies, so the regional average conceals sharply different national outcomes. Oil exporters facing lost production or export capacity are expected to experience the steepest contractions, while some Central Asian economies are still projected to expand.

Country projections vary widely

The IMF projects output to fall 16.7 percent in Kuwait, 16 percent in Iraq and 15.6 percent in Qatar during 2026. Bahrain is forecast to contract 11.3 percent, Iran 7.6 percent and Saudi Arabia 3.3 percent. Kyrgyzstan, by contrast, is projected to grow by 9 percent.

These are forecasts, not final measurements. They depend on assumptions about the duration of the conflict, the resumption of trade and energy flows, and countries’ ability to maintain production and transport links. A longer interruption or further damage could deepen the downturn; faster normalisation could improve the outlook.

Global growth still expected

The regional warning comes alongside a global growth projection of 3.1 percent, compared with an earlier 3 percent estimate. The Middle East and Central Asia was the only world region expected to post negative growth in the updated forecast.

The revised outlook shows how conflict around a strategic shipping chokepoint can transmit through oil revenues, freight costs, investment and confidence. The eventual impact will depend heavily on how quickly shipping and energy operations return to more predictable conditions.

What the ballot asks

The question asks whether Alberta’s government should commence the steps required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a future binding provincial referendum on separation. The distinction matters: the October vote is an initial test of support, and any eventual decision on independence would require a later vote and further legal and political steps.

The campaign has grown out of longstanding disputes between Alberta and the federal government, particularly over energy and environmental policy. Separatists argue that Ottawa’s approach unfairly constrains the oil- and gas-producing province. The movement has gained visibility, although polling cited in the coverage indicated that most Albertans opposed independence.

Carney urges national unity

Prime Minister Mark Carney used a Thanksgiving message to call for Canadians to remain united. He warned that the country faces economic and security challenges and argued that cooperation is needed to address them. His remarks came a week before Albertans were scheduled to vote.

The debate is also unfolding against a strained relationship between Canada and the United States. A newspaper investigation reported meetings between US Republican operatives and Alberta separatist organisers about campaign strategy. It also reported that separatist leaders had discussed access to Alberta’s water and oil royalties in exchange for US support; those leaders disputed the claims.

A vote with national consequences

Although the ballot is not itself a binding independence decision, its outcome could shape Alberta’s negotiations with Ottawa and influence separatist politics elsewhere in Canada. The result will show whether voters want the provincial government to pursue a formal path toward a later referendum.

The vote will not, by itself, determine Alberta’s constitutional status. Any move toward separation would involve additional legal steps and a subsequent binding decision by voters.

Departure during disciplinary proceedings

A police spokesperson said Sibiya’s departure would be treated as a dishonourable discharge because disciplinary proceedings were under way. He had been suspended since September 2025. The resignation ends his service in the post but does not resolve the separate allegations or investigations involving him.

Sibiya is in custody following his arrest last month over allegations of rape and grooming involving a minor. He denies the accusations. His bail application had been postponed to October 13, the day after the resignation was tendered.

Separate corruption inquiry

The former deputy commissioner has also appeared before a judicial commission examining alleged corruption in the police service and alleged links between officers and organised crime. During the inquiry, he was accused of receiving cash and gifts from people described as criminals. Sibiya denied those claims in his testimony.

The allegations remain allegations, and no finding of guilt is established by the resignation or the ongoing proceedings. The criminal case, bail process and commission inquiry are distinct matters, each with its own evidence and procedures.

Leadership implications

The case comes amid broader scrutiny of policing and corruption in South Africa. The commission is examining claims about improper relationships inside law enforcement, while the charges against Sibiya raise separate questions that must be tested in court. Authorities have not announced in this account what further disciplinary or administrative steps will follow his departure.

The next public development was expected to be the bail hearing, while investigators and the commission continue their respective processes.

Spending accelerated this summer

Reports on the filings put Musk’s spending since July at $276 million, including $158 million directed to a super PAC focused on Senate contests. America PAC, Musk’s political committee, confirmed the overall totals. A spokesperson said the spending was intended to help Republicans defend their congressional majorities against a possible Democratic takeover.

Musk is a close ally of President Donald Trump and served as a special adviser to the White House last year. The latest spending comes as Republican candidates face voter concerns about the cost of living and the president’s declining popularity. Democrats are seeking to turn dissatisfaction with the administration into gains in Congress.

Midterms will decide control of Congress

Voters are due to cast ballots on November 3 in races that will determine control of the House and Senate, as well as state and local offices. Republicans currently hold majorities in both chambers, and the outcome will shape the remainder of Trump’s term.

The spending has renewed debate about the role wealthy donors and political action committees play in US elections. Critics argue that large contributions can give a small number of donors outsized influence over campaigns and policy priorities. Supporters of Musk’s donations say political contributions are a form of participation and that the money helps candidates communicate with voters.

Musk had previously suggested he would reduce his political involvement. The latest reported contributions indicate that he has remained a major financial force in the election year. The sums reflect reported campaign support; they do not determine how voters will cast their ballots or which party will control Congress.

Work halted near al-Rafid

The vehicles advanced south of the town in the southwestern province, where residents were preparing foundations. Israeli forces prevented them from continuing the work. No further details were given about the residents or the proposed construction.

In a separate incident, the broadcaster said Israeli forces blew up an abandoned military barracks at Tal Harboun, near Beit Jinn in the western Damascus countryside.

Dispute over Israeli deployments

Israel has expanded its military presence in southern Syria since Bashar al-Assad’s government fell on December 8, 2024. Its forces have moved into the demilitarised buffer zone and positions near the occupied Golan Heights.

Damascus has called for Israeli forces to withdraw and says Syria remains committed to the 1974 disengagement agreement. Israel says its operations are intended to address security concerns.

The reported construction stoppage comes amid continuing disagreement over Israeli military activity in southern Syria and the status of territory around the Golan Heights.

Jabalia attack and civilian toll

The soldiers recounted a strike on a residential complex in Jabalia on October 31, 2023. The stated target was Ibrahim Biari, a Hamas battalion commander believed to be in a tunnel beneath the area. One soldier said the intelligence team did not know which building stood above the tunnel. He said the decision was to destroy the buildings above it while people remained inside, without an evacuation.

Another soldier said planners estimated that 250 to 300 civilians could be harmed and that the plan was sent to the chief of staff for approval. He later understood that about 250 people had died. These numbers reflect the soldiers’ accounts and are not presented as an independently verified casualty count.

The Israeli military disputed key parts of that account. It said the strike was redesigned several times to reduce civilian harm, that its expected death toll was not in the hundreds, and that the damage later proved greater than its initial assessment.

Wider targeting rules

A soldier from a drone unit said the division could conduct strikes expected to injure up to 20 non-combatants without approval from a senior official outside the targeting cell. Another intelligence soldier described planning an advance into Gaza City, where an assessment indicated that about one-quarter of residents might still be in their homes. He said attacks began without a full evacuation.

The four soldiers spoke anonymously. Their descriptions concern military orders and internal assessments; the Israeli military’s response contests the expected civilian toll and the precautions taken in the Jabalia strike.

Ministry updates cumulative toll

Since October 2023, the ministry has recorded 74,382 deaths and 175,416 injuries. These are the figures in its latest published accounting and may be revised as additional cases are documented or earlier records are checked.

The toll has continued to rise despite a ceasefire that began on October 10, 2025. The ministry said 1,493 Palestinians had been killed and 5,299 injured in attacks since the truce took effect. The latest daily figures therefore describe casualties recorded in the context of a ceasefire period during which violence has continued, according to the ministry.

Damage compounds the humanitarian crisis

The same update highlighted the scale of physical destruction across Gaza. It cited an estimate that about 90 percent of civilian infrastructure had been affected and that recovery and reconstruction would cost approximately $71.4 billion.

The damage to homes and essential services adds to the burden on medical facilities already treating large numbers of injured people. Rebuilding will require extensive resources, while the continuing violence and limited capacity to document every case can complicate both emergency response and the verification of casualty figures.

Figures reflect the latest available accounting

Casualty totals are reported by local health authorities and can change as new information becomes available. The ministry’s latest update distinguishes newly recorded deaths from people who died later of earlier injuries; its total injury count includes those reported wounded over the course of the war.

How the oil shuttle operates

The route uses smaller vessels to carry oil from regional ports through a southern corridor near Oman, where cargo can be transferred to larger tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Ships may travel at night and turn off tracking transponders to reduce the risk of being targeted.

Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei said the United States Central Command, with help from the United Arab Emirates military, was assisting the transfers. He claimed Iranian forces had been striking five or six participating vessels nightly for weeks. Those numbers and details are Rezaei’s claims and have not been independently verified.

Vessels targeted as tensions rise

Several ships were reported targeted overnight from Sunday into Monday, including two outbound tankers and another vessel near Sohar, Oman. The incidents followed other reported projectile attacks on ships using the route. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has also warned about mines in the strait and said three tankers suffered major damage over the weekend; the available account did not independently establish the cause of every incident.

Tehran has tied its threats to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Rezaei also warned that US-linked cables, data centres and artificial-intelligence facilities in the UAE and around the strait could be targeted. He accused Saudi Arabia of helping Washington move oil, but did not threaten a direct attack on Riyadh.

Shipping and energy costs climb

The Strait of Hormuz carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas flows before the war. Maritime data showed an average of 31 ships transiting each day in the final week of September, down from 138 before the conflict. At least 15 vessels were believed to have been targeted in October up to the time of the report.

Greater danger has increased freight charges for Gulf crude. Shipping costs rose from about 1 to 3 percent of crude’s cost before the war to 25 to 30 percent, and some national oil companies offered discounts of up to $35 per barrel. Limited tanker availability and repeated transfers have added further strain to the logistics chain.

Continued attacks could deepen disruption to regional exports and raise costs across maritime trade. The outlook depends on whether the conflict eases, whether the shuttle route remains operational and how governments respond to threats against commercial shipping.

Demonstrations and reported arrests

Students and teachers have staged demonstrations opposing the rules. Dozens of people have reportedly been arrested, but no confirmed total or detailed information about those detained has been provided.

Social media users have also described disruptions to online platforms as public anger grew. The extent of those disruptions and whether they were directly connected to the protests remain unclear.

Policy details remain unclear

The schools affected, the way the uniform requirements are being enforced and the government’s response to the demonstrations have not been detailed. Further official information would clarify the policy’s scope and the circumstances surrounding the reported arrests.

Families seek answers

The gathering brought relatives to the Syrian capital to press for news of people they say are being held in Israeli prisons. Their demands focused on two issues: learning what has happened to their family members and securing their return.

The protest placed the detainees’ cases before Syrian officials at a time when public information about the people held, the circumstances of their detention and their current whereabouts remains limited. Families’ requests for reliable information reflect the uncertainty faced by relatives unable to confirm the status of loved ones.

Call for official engagement

By demonstrating outside the Foreign Ministry, the families called attention to the need for authorities to pursue the cases and communicate what is known. They are seeking both direct answers and action toward the detainees’ release.

Available details about the demonstration did not specify how many people took part or provide names and case information for individual detainees. The families’ central appeal was for the fate of their relatives to be clarified and for those held to be freed.